Boris Johnson’s sabre rattling may just strengthen the EU
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Negotiations between the UK and the EU on their future trade relations after Brexit were never going to be easy. After all, it took more than three years (and several near misses) just to agree the terms of Britain’s departure from the bloc. But talks were expected to stay within the wonkish, technical world of tariffs and product standards, since existential issues such as how to deal with the flow of goods across the Irish border without undermining peace or the integrity of the EU market were amicably settled.
That has changed in spectacular fashion.
Few trade negotiators have found themselves in the position of the EU’s Michel Barnier, who arrived in London this week intending to break an impasse over issues such as state aid only to find Boris Johnson’s government doubling down on a bid to openly breach international law by rewriting the terms of Brexit itself. Legislation published on Wednesday would allow Britain to ditch measures such as customs paperwork, designed to avoid a return to a hard border in Ireland.
Hence exasperated EU officials, who’ve long refrained from calling Johnson’s bluff over myriad threats to walk away and make a messy “no-deal” scenario reality, are now sending their own signal that talks are nearing collapse. The EU has begun studying the possibility of legal action against the UK over the proposed legislation, as reported by Alberto Nardelli of Bloomberg News, with obvious grounds to retaliate if the bill becomes law. That is tantamount to closing the door on trade negotiations.
Sketching out a lawsuit may not sound particularly aggressive in a world where Donald Trump breezily threatens to tear up everything from free trade agreements to Nato. But in the staid world of Brussels diplomacy, this is a clear message. If Johnson makes good on his bid to breach international law, Barnier may as well climb back on to the Eurostar.
The multi-step legal process to launching a complaint via the European court of justice would likely run well beyond the December deadline for reaching a trade deal. And while Brussels technocrats have always tried to insulate talks from the sabre-rattling of politicians, there would very likely be no trust left to agree on the fine print, and no real ability for Barnier to convince the EU’s 27 members and its European parliament to sign it into a binding treaty.
Such a move will no doubt ...
That has changed in spectacular fashion.
Few trade negotiators have found themselves in the position of the EU’s Michel Barnier, who arrived in London this week intending to break an impasse over issues such as state aid only to find Boris Johnson’s government doubling down on a bid to openly breach international law by rewriting the terms of Brexit itself. Legislation published on Wednesday would allow Britain to ditch measures such as customs paperwork, designed to avoid a return to a hard border in Ireland.
Hence exasperated EU officials, who’ve long refrained from calling Johnson’s bluff over myriad threats to walk away and make a messy “no-deal” scenario reality, are now sending their own signal that talks are nearing collapse. The EU has begun studying the possibility of legal action against the UK over the proposed legislation, as reported by Alberto Nardelli of Bloomberg News, with obvious grounds to retaliate if the bill becomes law. That is tantamount to closing the door on trade negotiations.
Sketching out a lawsuit may not sound particularly aggressive in a world where Donald Trump breezily threatens to tear up everything from free trade agreements to Nato. But in the staid world of Brussels diplomacy, this is a clear message. If Johnson makes good on his bid to breach international law, Barnier may as well climb back on to the Eurostar.
The multi-step legal process to launching a complaint via the European court of justice would likely run well beyond the December deadline for reaching a trade deal. And while Brussels technocrats have always tried to insulate talks from the sabre-rattling of politicians, there would very likely be no trust left to agree on the fine print, and no real ability for Barnier to convince the EU’s 27 members and its European parliament to sign it into a binding treaty.
Such a move will no doubt ...