Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
A promising summer grain outlook
South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48…
SA to export beef to Saudi Arabia
One positive bit of news I noticed this past week is about South Africa's beef industry, with an encouraging headline stating, "Saudi Arabia to start South African meat imports as ban ends". This means everything is now in order for Saudi Arabia to import beef from South Africa. The Kingdom…
South Africa’s 2023 agricultural machinery sales were mixed
South Africa’s filed crop harvest was excellent in 2022/23 season. For example, the 2022/23 maize harvest amounted to 16,4 million, which is 6% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2,8 million tonnes. South Africa's sugar cane crop was…
SA has a decent winter crop harvest
South Africa's 2023/24 winter crop season has turned out better than some feared. The data released at the end of December 2023 by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) painted a positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest. In its fifth production estimate for the 2023/24 season, the CEC kept…
SA agricultural outlook for 2024
One can categorise the start of this year as positive for South Africa’s agriculture. I recently drove across the country from Pretoria to the Wild Coast, which was an opportunity to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. The vegetation was welcoming and…
Key challenges that constrained SA's agricultural fortunes in 2023
As the year draws to a close, it is worth reflecting on critical events that dominated the South African agricultural scene this year. There is three in particular that stood out. First, the intense and persistent load-shedding right from the start of the year was a significant challenge for South…
SA agricultural exports were robust in Q3, 2023
South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.9 billion in the third quarter of this year, up by 4% y/y (according to data from Trade Map). This quarter, the products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, and fruit juices. This solid export…
Winter crops in South Africa
The data released this past week by the Crop Estimates Committee continue to paint a reasonably positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest, albeit with minor downward monthly revisions of the crop size. The primary issue on farmers' minds is perhaps not crop size but the deterioration in quality…
Food prices in South Africa
Food inflation has been topical over the past few months, and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America, China's strong demand for grains and oilseed, higher energy prices,…
SA farm jobs up
The solid production conditions in South Africa's agricultural sector continue to be reflected in the employment data. For example, the data released today by Statistics South Africa showed that in the third quarter of 2023, about 956 000 people were employed in primary agriculture, up 10% year-on-year (and 7% quarter-on-quarter)…
Biosecurity challenges in SA agriculture
One aspect that remains a major challenge for the domestic animal farming sector and has been raised by our members in various engagements for some time is the weaknesses in South Africa's biosecurity system. Admittedly, biosecurity breaches are not uniquely South African and have become a significant challenge globally. We…
Prospects for solid summer crop harvest in SA in 2023/24 season
Although El Niño is on our doorstep, we have generally held an optimistic view about South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production season. The excellent soil moisture from the past rainy seasons and prospects of rainfall throughout 2023 have convinced us that there may still be decent summer grain…
South Africa's food security conditions
October 16th marks World Food Day, a celebration of the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. This day is also an opportunity for countries to reflect on their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. Thus, today, we revisit an aspect we discussed…
Eggs and poultry supply constraints in South Africa
The topical issue in South Africa's agriculture currently is the avian influenza spreading across South Africa. The most dominant strains are the highly pathogenic H5 and H7. The most affected provinces so far are Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State, Limpopo and North West. We understand that over a hundred mostly commercial…
Western Cape Floods and Agricultural Conditions
The Western Cape, which accounts for over two-thirds of South Africa's winter crops and a large share of wine grapes and various horticulture products, faced another heavy and destructive flood this past week. The rainfall peak was mainly the Bredasdorp in the Southern Overberg region. Significant damages to farm infrastructure,…
Quick Comment on the Avian Flu in SA
This is a quick comment on the current avian flu in South Africa. The segment is mainly to update the listeners of the podcast on this topical issue
SA summer crop harvest and prospects for new season
Last week, South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its 2022/23 8th summer crop production forecasts. In these production estimates, there were no new surprises or significant adjustments to the existing forecasts. For example, if we can highlight maize, the 2022/23 commercial harvest is 16,4 million tonnes, roughly unchanged from…
Summer crop planting prospects in South Africa
We are three weeks into the start of South Africa's 2023/24 summer crop production season. The uncertainty regarding the intensity of the El Niño weather event as well as the, possible higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall that this could bring is still a concern. However, the latest message from the…
What underpins food prices in South Africa
The South African government voiced concerns about the higher food prices and instructed the cabinet's economic cluster to implement a food security plan to cushion consumers. We have yet to see the government's strategy and approach. But it is worth highlighting that South Africa's consumer food price inflation has started…
SA agricultural exports remained robust in Q2,2023
South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, up by 0,1% y/y. Despite challenges in key export markets such as the EU in the case of citrus, the products that dominated the export list this quarter were citrus, maize, apples and pears, wine,…